MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32baed72d3750f9f7816bb4369453b2f741d7620841512f9fdecd89010f01819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof New York Mets, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 40c | 2,344$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.6 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed New York Mets | 41c | 2,291$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.28 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,910$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.81 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,785$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked New York Mets | 41c | 1,498$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.01 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 1,396$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 13c | 1,395$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,020$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.03 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 77c | 1,008$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.61 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked New York Mets | 17c | 904.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 743.9$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.38 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 666.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.12 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 520.19$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 500.77$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.78 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 413.44$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 309.35$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 289.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed New York Mets | 18c | 286.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 266.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 244.1$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 43c | 199.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed New York Mets | 44c | 193.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 40c | 173.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 128.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Mets | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 98.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed New York Mets | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 96.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed New York Mets | 40c | 94.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked New York Mets | 31c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Mets | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 72.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 48c | 63.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed New York Mets | 41c | 60.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 56.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked New York Mets | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 41c | 48.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed New York Mets | 43c | 44.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed New York Mets | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 39.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed New York Mets | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 32.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed New York Mets | 43c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 66c | 17.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.