Champions League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f757003e711e7ed0ef8edb9897e296e04242425b32906ca2cfc718576579646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 15c | 5,984$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.59 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 14c | 3,327$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.53 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 3,251$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.1 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 1,857$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.73 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 29c | 1,839$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.69 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Yes | 4c | 1,525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 15c | 1,340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,261$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.92 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 1,125$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,052$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.52 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 982.51$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.16 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 31c | 952.28$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.11 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 14c | 684.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 14c | 604$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 18c | 522.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Yes | 28c | 399.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…ca16backed Yes | 17c | 324.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 20c | 290.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…7217backed Yes | 15c | 280.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 28c | 221$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 200.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 146.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 69c | 126$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 76c | 121.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 70c | 119.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 70c | 114.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 32c | 111.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 12c | 96.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 68c | 84.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 75.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…ade2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 76c | 54.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9477…5b46backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 32c | 45.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 75c | 42.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 28c | 38.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 74c | 38.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 80c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 74c | 37.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 73c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-11?No won
- Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-08-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.