Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7a281b52b3d172a7504b2ee772a2760c99a4aeb8014c03e907164c1b88fd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atmaneof Auger-Aliassime, Atmane
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,964 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Atmane | 50c | 2,038$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.09 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a51abacked Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 1,900$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.62 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Atmane | 49c | 1,900$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.3 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 1,000$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.13 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 784.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 411.2$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Atmane | 46c | 401.19$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.64 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Atmane | 58c | 356.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 196.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Atmane | 47c | 170.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 30c | 159.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…ebe6backed Atmane | 44c | 158.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Atmane | 51c | 145.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Atmane | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Atmane | 53c | 95.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed Atmane | 48c | 88.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Atmane | 44c | 87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Atmane | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Atmane | 50c | 67.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Auger-Aliassime | 47c | 56.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 271 | 47.2%128 W · 143 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…ac5cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 54.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 50.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Atmane | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atmane | 48c | 40.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Atmane | 59c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Atmane: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Terence Atmane: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence AtmaneTerence Atmane won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs AtmaneAtmane won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.