TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over13c3,440$447 inWon+$2,993.0852639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over17c2,629$443 inWon+$2,186.0398945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over13c2,050$266 inWon+$1,784.3136247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over12c1,810$226 inWon+$1,584.5238246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under23c601.83$138 inLost-$137.561,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over17c548.23$92 inWon+$455.9599340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under6c333$20 inLost-$19.9892346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Over10c292.1$29 inWon+$262.89450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+204.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over12c245.22$30 inWon+$215.588624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over13c234.97$31 inWon+$204.4344350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under79c200$158 inLost-$157.535247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under79c187.75$148 inLost-$147.9136646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Under75c169.61$127 inLost-$127.131376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.1wins0.00per pick76cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over21c95.24$20 inWon+$75.244639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under79c25$20 inLost-$19.751,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under74c21.64$16 inLost-$16.0122042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under79c17.61$14 inLost-$13.9126450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under75c15$11 inLost-$11.212850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Under80c12.64$10 inLost-$10.11450%2 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.