Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bec4cfb5a353484e92c461e82ba58da0cfe0ce0f5f60aadbc71af43de8cf93f

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under	55c	5,812$3,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,179.46	989	45.4%449 W · 540 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	50c	3,885$1,955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,930.36	1,880	36.6%688 W · 1,192 L	-7.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	51c	3,665$1,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,854.71	240	46.7%112 W · 128 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Under	39c	3,389$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310.73	23	78.3%18 W · 5 L	+5.5wins	+0.24per pick	54cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Over	41c	2,099$863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,236.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Over	49c	1,887$931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$956.42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Over	35c	1,622$567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.01	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under	62c	1,345$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.9	355	50.4%179 W · 176 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Over	64c	1,233$794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.91	199	60.8%121 W · 78 L	+22.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under	41c	1,211$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over	44c	1,147$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.79	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	29c	1,113$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.44	461	56.2%259 W · 202 L	+13.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	30c	1,025$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.81	871	54.6%476 W · 395 L	+34.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	67c	903.01$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.49	270	58.9%159 W · 111 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under	40c	893.54$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.17	273	44.3%121 W · 152 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over	30c	884.56$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$621.5	382	46.1%176 W · 206 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	8c	881.02$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.7	1,009	46.2%466 W · 543 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x589e…421cbacked Under	46c	838.93$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over	62c	832.42$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.32	87	60.9%53 W · 34 L	+13.7wins	+0.16per pick	45cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x425e…ecfabacked Over	34c	750$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	45c	726.32$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.7	444	47.3%210 W · 234 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	52c	675.58$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.98	1,262	45.2%571 W · 691 L	-28.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Over	30c	636.1$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.27	51	62.7%32 W · 19 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	48c	552.52$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.84	352	47.7%168 W · 184 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Over	39c	512.82$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.82	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under	48c	510.68$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.87	366	46.7%171 W · 195 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over	38c	493$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.66	200	43%86 W · 114 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Under	14c	485.88$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under	44c	472.1$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.65	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+142.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under	50c	419.71$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.12	314	46.5%146 W · 168 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	42c	409.67$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.42	993	40.1%398 W · 595 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	25c	400$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	472	40.7%192 W · 280 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under	5c	307$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	220	42.7%94 W · 126 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under	61c	300$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	76	68.4%52 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	63cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over	43c	261.21$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.33	146	52.1%76 W · 70 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under	63c	236$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.68	201	33.3%67 W · 134 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x656a…6077backed Under	66c	221$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Over	40c	200$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	35c	197.54$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.23	923	46.6%430 W · 493 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	40c	197$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.77	967	56.8%549 W · 418 L	+73.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5c9…0581backed Over	24c	196.72$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under	78c	189.74$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.29	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over	50c	175.11$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.79	171	37.4%64 W · 107 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Over	37c	167.18$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.32	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x640c…1369backed Under	51c	163.4$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	36c	150$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	41cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	27c	146.81$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.17	309	57%176 W · 133 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	35c	125.64$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.46	362	47.2%171 W · 191 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	61c	119.35$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.54	802	49.8%399 W · 403 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7e…564dbacked Over	58c	118$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.81	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Under	41c	115.66$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.42	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	64c	107.85$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Over	32c	105$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.4	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fd…32a0backed Under	54c	102.59$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.09	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	38c	98.6$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.13	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…bd60backed Under	62c	91.94$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over	48c	89.15$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.63	239	53.6%128 W · 111 L	+14.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	46c	82.83$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	92	53.3%49 W · 43 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under	54c	80.56$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	40c	75.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	256	52.3%134 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	43c	70.96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.82	443	50.6%224 W · 219 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Under	57c	67.09$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over	46c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+4.0wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over	47c	55.89$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.84	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Under	56c	52.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	48c	50.73$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.22	196	42.9%84 W · 112 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	36c	50$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.1	102	49%50 W · 52 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over	61c	48.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.93	90	70%63 W · 27 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+24%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	39c	46.38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.29	394	35.8%141 W · 253 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over	26c	42.88$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.87	86	24.4%21 W · 65 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Over	38c	42.22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.18	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under	61c	40.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Under	56c	39.45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.09	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Under	39c	37.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over	43c	36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.68	187	74.3%139 W · 48 L	+33.5wins	+0.18per pick	56cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over	51c	33.85$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.57	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Over	62c	32.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	37	75.7%28 W · 9 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Over	39c	32.47$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.91	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Under	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b56…d1e1backed Under	63c	18.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under	66c	18.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	26	76.9%20 W · 6 L	+4.1wins	+0.16per pick	61cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5Under won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event