Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd276b9076069c96639845cbd62f388c9203c98229cf0fa78488229cf5d56bb6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta United FCof Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Philadelphia Union | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Atlanta United FC | 73c | 1,615$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.46 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Philadelphia Union | 36c | 898$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.8 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Atlanta United FC | 64c | 862.71$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.58 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Atlanta United FC | 49c | 750.71$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.86 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Atlanta United FC | 63c | 362.49$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Philadelphia Union | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Atlanta United FC | 62c | 213.77$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Atlanta United FC | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta United FC | 74c | 185.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Union | 46c | 139.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Philadelphia Union | 36c | 131.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Philadelphia Union | 34c | 121.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Atlanta United FC | 64c | 118.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Union | 23c | 92.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta United FC | 66c | 88.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Atlanta United FC | 65c | 87.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Union | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Philadelphia Union | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Atlanta United FC | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Philadelphia Union | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Atlanta United FC | 68c | 34.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Philadelphia Union | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Union | 37c | 32.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Atlanta United FC | 75c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta United FC | 75c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Philadelphia Union | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta United FC | 69c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Atlanta United FC | 69c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Atlanta United FC | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Atlanta United FC | 77c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Atlanta United FC | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.