Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a87a414c2a4253191ad913abcaa147055411bcba0926de80c976c54b09e7474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 12,628$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,129.59 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 65c | 3,757$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.95 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 62c | 3,026$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.02 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 47c | 2,100$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 52c | 1,454$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 43c | 1,011$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.13 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 960.47$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Under | 3c | 875$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 850.98$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 67c | 845$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.85 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 796$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 68c | 735.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 51c | 609.82$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.81 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 62c | 552$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.76 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 17c | 520.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 78c | 484.91$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 78c | 397.61$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 40c | 365$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Under | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 151.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 66c | 147.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 37c | 138$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 117.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 66c | 116.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 105.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 91.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 46c | 87.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 61c | 85.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 61c | 78.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 38c | 76.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 76.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 67.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 55c | 65.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 56c | 64.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 66c | 64.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 62.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 67c | 56.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Over | 66c | 48.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 45.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 42c | 42.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Under | 51c | 40.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Under | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 62c | 37.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 38c | 36.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 38c | 34.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 50c | 29.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 29.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 51c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.