TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,818 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under16c1,485$243 inLost-$243.1498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x589e…421cbacked Under14c1,348$191 inLost-$191.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over76c1,100$836 inWon+$263.0838246.1%176 W · 206 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over76c984.17$748 inWon+$236.287154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under18c691$124 inLost-$124.3820133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Over79c411$323 inWon+$87.752860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Over79c404$319 inWon+$84.8419960.8%121 W · 78 L+22.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Over79c373$295 inWon+$78.3320660.7%125 W · 81 L+19.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under13c353$47 inLost-$47.0992346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Under18c350.96$63 inLost-$63.1710243.1%44 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under16c300.42$48 inLost-$47.741,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under8c272$22 inLost-$22.480249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Under10c248.1$25 inLost-$24.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under28c178.5$50 inLost-$49.9847240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under17c126$21 inLost-$21.0852639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Under25c106.44$27 inLost-$26.613740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Over77c98$75 inWon+$22.544955.1%27 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae3b…e06ebacked Under25c45.56$11 inLost-$11.391361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over79c45.18$36 inWon+$9.499070%63 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over78c35$27 inWon+$7.727344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Over77c31.56$24 inWon+$7.261275%9 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+64.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Over77c29$22 inWon+$6.672661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over73c15$11 inWon+$4.052572%18 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17d…6f86backed Over79c14$11 inWon+$2.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.