South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fdcf321a272ee2b4854a575b346238a7e116cf7afa30a27e7aae1852726135a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Under | 27c | 2,927$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.55 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Over | 11c | 183.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Over | 13c | 165.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Over | 15c | 142.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Under | 30c | 132.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Over | 17c | 120.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Over | 18c | 78.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Over | 18c | 78.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Over | 24c | 66.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 27.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 52c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed Over | 68c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: LDU de Quito O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)LDU de Quito won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)LDU de Quito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.