South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f9ad27b4c73eb16d441e90ec7acd4caf52df1186aa70d4e1c726706ca47d3cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LDU de Quitoof Mirassol FC, LDU de Quito
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mirassol FC | 30c | 8,622$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.58 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed LDU de Quito | 72c | 7,282$5,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.76 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed LDU de Quito | 72c | 3,251$2,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.42 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mirassol FC | 26c | 1,976$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.03 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed LDU de Quito | 70c | 1,707$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mirassol FC | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Mirassol FC | 49c | 1,322$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.53 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked LDU de Quito | 51c | 1,197$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.35 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed LDU de Quito | 72c | 815.44$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Mirassol FC | 28c | 446$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Mirassol FC | 28c | 446$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Mirassol FC | 28c | 374.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mirassol FC | 30c | 330.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Mirassol FC | 29c | 328$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Mirassol FC | 28c | 283.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Mirassol FC | 33c | 264.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Mirassol FC | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked LDU de Quito | 71c | 246$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mirassol FC | 21c | 176.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Mirassol FC | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed LDU de Quito | 72c | 158.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed LDU de Quito | 72c | 158.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Mirassol FC | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked LDU de Quito | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed LDU de Quito | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked LDU de Quito | 71c | 99.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed LDU de Quito | 51c | 98.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed LDU de Quito | 73c | 74.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed LDU de Quito | 74c | 67.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked LDU de Quito | 71c | 61.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed LDU de Quito | 70c | 49.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed LDU de Quito | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked LDU de Quito | 78c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed LDU de Quito | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed LDU de Quito | 71c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed LDU de Quito | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed LDU de Quito | 71c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed LDU de Quito | 74c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)this page
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: LDU de Quito O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)LDU de Quito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.