South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f6991690dbd399fb51d67f88782ed186198d55c1de6f95377d47da29fcdccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 5,958$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.32 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed Under | 78c | 4,515$3,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 18c | 3,422$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.39 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Over | 29c | 2,533$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 2,056$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 1,129$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.06 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Under | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 904.09$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.56 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Over | 31c | 719.59$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 18c | 392.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 77c | 325.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 8c | 209.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 24c | 178.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 136.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 29c | 99.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 23c | 94.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 20c | 70.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 36.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed Under | 76c | 36.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 80c | 28.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: LDU de Quito O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Mirassol FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)LDU de Quito won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)LDU de Quito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.