MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5007754990c583b9558efb053afc29e408f70eb00715955518d846fdf04b1743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 9c | 5,898$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 2,632$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.82 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 50c | 2,433$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.42 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 68c | 1,715$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.14 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 1,032$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.03 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 978$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 916$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.36 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 761.42$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.44 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 679.19$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.59 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 560.78$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…e42fbacked Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 399$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 69c | 222$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 68c | 210$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 48c | 207.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 192.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 181$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 174.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 132.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 30c | 110.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 88.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 80.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 58c | 72.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,045 | 52%543 W · 502 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 80c | 67.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 61.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 55c | 56.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 69c | 55.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 69c | 51.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 68c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 67c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.