MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda0c923ae49a34a17941ad2c8fb21c88d28b7f7bcd2b8d20ea4805dfd95574e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 76c | 8,595$6,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 1,791$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 1,173$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 1,155$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 15c | 1,054$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 15c | 877.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 854.47$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 809.49$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 15c | 650.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 16c | 609.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 575.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 16c | 562$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 16c | 548.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 52c | 308.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 67c | 213.37$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 5c | 203.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 192.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 175.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 30c | 166.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 161.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 43c | 126.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 17c | 109.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 16c | 67.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 72c | 60.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 54.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 21c | 50.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 45.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 23c | 44.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 38.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 61c | 36.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 49c | 34.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 32c | 33.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 51c | 27.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 44c | 26.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Over | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.