MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead9a92d40685f290b79322775f8b9f6887a227dea23d6871de371629545f787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 6,857$4,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 41c | 4,413$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 2,177$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 22c | 2,026$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.77 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 41c | 1,840$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 1,035$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.51 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 37c | 1,031$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 898.93$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b731backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 870$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 41c | 587$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 426.49$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 47c | 391.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed New York Mets | 39c | 309$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.49 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 299.02$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.37 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked New York Mets | 50c | 295.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Cincinnati Reds | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 56c | 233$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 42c | 226.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked New York Mets | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed New York Mets | 34c | 141.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed New York Mets | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed New York Mets | 39c | 94.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed New York Mets | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed New York Mets | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 37c | 82.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 68.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 45c | 67.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 65.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 34c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed New York Mets | 22c | 59.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Mets | 38c | 55.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 51.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…2779backed New York Mets | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked New York Mets | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 38.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Mets | 42c | 35.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 33.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 46c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 75c | 29.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 27.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 21.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 20.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 75c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.