MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce8d9139fb22c3f2915977bca538a967338bc3bc3b11bae3cba27bb699fb6e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 3,474$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 2,809$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.58 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 2,551$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.17 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 1,371$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.8 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 1,298$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 51c | 746.95$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.16 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 720.67$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 566.54$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 563.03$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 513.75$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 80c | 502.84$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 383.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 190.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 190.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 52c | 189.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 142.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…0d32backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 128.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 83.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 63c | 79.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 45c | 58.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 56.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 56.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…b26fbacked Over | 48c | 50.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 66c | 40.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 54c | 35.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 32.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 26.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 49c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.