Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505f74fda8352cd634a965a1fcbb1da652607c19d77bede43d67885591bdeba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,663$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.85 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 425$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 6c | 415.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 226.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 216$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 172.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 163.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 46c | 156.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 154.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 142.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 96.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 71c | 90.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 88.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 50c | 86.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 85.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 82.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 82.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3754backed Yes | 43c | 81.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 80.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 45c | 79.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 45c | 75.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 75.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 42c | 73.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 72.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 57c | 47.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 46.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…2857backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 43.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 43.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 48c | 40.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 39.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 39.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 38.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 37.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 28.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 55c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 47c | 27.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 48c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 62c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 59c | 23.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 48c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 18.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.