Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f595f683d648c37231b06b70b01b53c6deff081311e2552b11d4225b9444e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 1,894$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.72 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 3c | 913$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 491.3$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 425$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 62c | 422.38$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 368.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 248.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 26c | 194.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 185.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 181.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3754backed No | 48c | 172.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 155.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 153.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 144.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 51c | 140.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 138.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 126$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 21c | 119.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 109.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 106$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 104.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 97.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 95.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 71c | 91.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 88.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 87.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 36c | 87.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 85.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 79.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 75.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 66.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 62.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 71c | 59.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 59.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 31c | 59.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 56.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 56.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 52c | 55.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 53.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 76c | 51.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 42c | 48.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 47c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 38.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 37.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 36.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 67c | 30.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 54c | 26.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 24.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 23.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 65c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 22.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 56c | 22.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 55c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 64c | 18.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 78c | 18.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 18.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 66c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.