La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505f90c27a138c2d64863b49153a21f1280b8f5aed6eba9eabb489c3208dce91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 1,478$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked Under | 77c | 966$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 28c | 892$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 73c | 746.62$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.55 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 692.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Under | 75c | 514.67$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 29c | 445.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 73c | 349.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 71c | 344.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Over | 34c | 330.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 16c | 282$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 78c | 257.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Under | 80c | 169.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 73c | 163.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…f744backed Under | 70c | 142.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 135.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 31c | 131.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Over | 12c | 128.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 25c | 119.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed Over | 35c | 115.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 27c | 111.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 70c | 102.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 32c | 96.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Under | 72c | 96.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 96.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 28c | 95.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 20c | 86.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 78c | 71.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 80c | 71.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over | 31c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…3ee9backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Under | 72c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…a061backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…ba6cbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8028backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Under | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…15e3backed Under | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.