Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5087d9077c4103aa0eaf45b2d8d729f5dcb31931d76009693500cd69dd78109a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 431.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 17c | 421.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.18 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 378.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.52 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 53c | 179.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 177.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 173.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 166.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 133.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 125.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 121.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 116.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 29c | 95.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 58.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 75c | 55.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 43.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 41.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 80c | 40.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 38.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 41c | 32.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 31.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 39c | 30.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 46c | 30.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 27.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 74c | 25.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…a93cbacked No | 70c | 24.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 75c | 21.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 19.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa481…f126backed No | 73c | 18.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 16.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…46aebacked No | 71c | 15.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 71c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 14.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…577ebacked Yes | 75c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.