Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2f3436e0e7144c5dedb865704199dc166b9b067075fab6141818c04c650bdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a12…d440backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 46c | 284.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 242.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 202.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 177.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked Yes | 47c | 127.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5772…b03cbacked Yes | 44c | 118.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 42c | 118.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 107.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 59c | 105.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 52c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 63c | 95.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 80.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 56c | 72.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 60.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 59.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 52c | 57.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 56.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 46c | 50.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 55c | 48.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 57c | 48.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 52c | 46.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked No | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 52c | 41.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 37.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 35.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 56c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…1814backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 53c | 31.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 64c | 31.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…e521backed No | 53c | 30.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 64c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed Yes | 50c | 29.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 49c | 27.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 54c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 54c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…9ef3backed Yes | 43c | 25.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 63c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 23.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 63c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.