MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51218ef59cd31172c6a790ed854d3710f3f1d9605e962b1b8cc719a2ec9525c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 62c | 15,592$9,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,667.2 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 11,520$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,092.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 3,073$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 2,875$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 38c | 1,488$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 40c | 632$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.94 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 591.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 25c | 453.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.45 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 38c | 449.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.42 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 77c | 354$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Under | 40c | 302.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 73c | 220.2$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 49c | 197.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 79c | 189.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 156.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 68c | 142.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 61c | 113.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 112.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 45c | 88.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 61c | 81.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 62c | 81.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 66c | 47.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8113…22cbbacked Under | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Over | 62c | 45.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 38c | 44.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 69c | 44.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 32c | 39.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Over | 69c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 61c | 17.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5319…d626backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.