MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a14c8723c337f0363a71a2514dc6641926cc9489005e5c914dfa7b6d883ebd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 7,777$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,732.95 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 4,105$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 2,188$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 2,111$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Colorado Rockies | 34c | 1,512$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 1,315$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 1,013$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 618.58$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 530.64$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 309.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 309.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 275.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 263.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 60.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 56.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Colorado Rockies | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 30.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34e2…bb69backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.