Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5133914118ff5c8ede638dad91fb6f8db6066ea716dfe69d915388b5aca0a887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 72c | 6,142$4,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.4 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 74c | 5,931$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.08 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,243$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.74 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…54fbbacked No | 75c | 3,200$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 33c | 3,040$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…7ef8backed Yes | 26c | 2,600$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,019$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 34c | 1,902$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.68 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 66c | 1,509$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.63 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…b8e3backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 75c | 1,375$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 26c | 1,265$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.9 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 1,260$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.72 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 34c | 1,255$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 66c | 1,140$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,007$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.15 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6fcebacked No | 75c | 900$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 799.18$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 23c | 648.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 25c | 647.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 66c | 397$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 274 | 54%148 W · 126 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 33c | 306.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 26c | 296.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 69c | 290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 260.81$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked No | 68c | 207.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 26c | 196.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…2ab3backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 26c | 165.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…9fc9backed Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 72c | 105.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…7df0backed Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea8…0877backed Yes | 29c | 50.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…c533backed Yes | 26c | 50.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 49.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.