Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x517866093f63a5ddd5322572c63963a41ca59fd0ba0f239f5d0ccce1a8a4e2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,528$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 655$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 15c | 546.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 516.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 440$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 33c | 398.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 10c | 349$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 300.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 271.57$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 266.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 245$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 27c | 239.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 219.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 195$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 189.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 17c | 185.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 170.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…3ee9backed Yes | 10c | 149.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 146.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 141.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…e8a1backed Yes | 11c | 139.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 11c | 138.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 129.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 120.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 14c | 120.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…e85cbacked Yes | 31c | 115.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 67c | 109.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 107.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…aa8ebacked Yes | 22c | 107.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 107.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 100.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 97.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 92.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 15c | 91.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 86.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 31c | 85.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 16c | 84.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 80.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 27c | 77.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…d3b9backed Yes | 26c | 72.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 71.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 19c | 63.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…ec3dbacked No | 78c | 63.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 45.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 43.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 39c | 39.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 77c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 38.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 35.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 79c | 32.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc414…e77dbacked No | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 80c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.