TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,087 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes56c2,635$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.4631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c654.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.855,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c498$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.845,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda33…007ebacked Yes57c479.04$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No41c477.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3884930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes58c467$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.2843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes57c451.4$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.964,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes63c409.63$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.311,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes58c402.17$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.311361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd5…5843backed Yes58c400$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c360.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.894,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c311.2$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No29c300.51$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.533,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes55c300$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.327832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes60c297.68$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6831943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No17c270.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.184,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No46c262.74$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1226744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No21c255.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5952322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No45c251.39$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No24c248.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No19c233$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.775,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No21c228.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.172,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No42c223.13$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.842,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes50c199.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.981,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No38c192$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No37c190.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No44c185$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.31,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No46c180.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No34c172.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.172,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.75832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes60c164.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4422746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes54c146.6$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7648149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No23c137.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.121,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No39c127.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes60c125.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4411249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No41c124.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.142,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c122$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.343,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes53c118$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.968947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No48c117.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0141460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes57c116.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No40c116$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.022,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No39c115.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.665337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No14c114.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4113728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes55c113.39$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes58c113$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No44c111.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.992,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No33c110.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.094,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No38c105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fae…86debacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5008…2502backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes39c99.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6646240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bb…1b2fbacked Yes56c95.37$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No47c91.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.031,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c87.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.662,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No42c84.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.361,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No48c81.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes73c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c79.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes49c79.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3513051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No41c76.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.392,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed No47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.259625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes39c71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.044738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9471…4967backed Yes61c70.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.825038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee65…5067backed Yes68c68.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c66.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No42c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No43c63.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.122,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e1…77debacked Yes46c62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.484548.9%22 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b3…086cbacked Yes52c61.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes53c60.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No36c60.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed Yes64c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.457431.1%23 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.117744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No39c59.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes68c58.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No42c57.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.372,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c56.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.481,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7d…e08cbacked No43c54.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c53.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.441,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes65c52.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.333,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3c…de59backed No34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d39…3e88backed No34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No23c51.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc23…64ebbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes31c47.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.967647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes28c47.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.357356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed Yes71c43.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.793751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c43.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.471,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No42c42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.742,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes59c41.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2211343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed No39c40.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c39.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.712,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No28c39.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.