Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da3fb9d2d120324a7e8043c1206d5a126d8b150805c93dbd4961af7472ca317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 56c | 2,635$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.46 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 654.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 498$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…007ebacked Yes | 57c | 479.04$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 41c | 477.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 58c | 467$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 451.4$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 63c | 409.63$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes | 58c | 402.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…5843backed Yes | 58c | 400$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 360.43$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 311.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 29c | 300.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 60c | 297.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 270.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 46c | 262.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 21c | 255.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 45c | 251.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 248.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 233$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 228.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 223.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 199.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 38c | 192$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 37c | 190.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 185$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 46c | 180.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 172.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 60c | 164.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 54c | 146.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 137.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 39c | 127.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 60c | 125.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 124.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 53c | 118$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 48c | 117.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 57c | 116.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 39c | 115.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 14c | 114.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 55c | 113.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 58c | 113$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 44c | 111.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 33c | 110.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…86debacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5008…2502backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 99.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked Yes | 56c | 95.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 47c | 91.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 87.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 42c | 84.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 48c | 81.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 79.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 49c | 79.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 76.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…4967backed Yes | 61c | 70.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…5067backed Yes | 68c | 68.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 66.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 63.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…086cbacked Yes | 52c | 61.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 53c | 60.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 36c | 60.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 39c | 59.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 58.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 57.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 56.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…e08cbacked No | 43c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 53.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 52.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…de59backed No | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…3e88backed No | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 51.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 31c | 47.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 28c | 47.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 71c | 43.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 43.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 59c | 41.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 39.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 28c | 39.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.