TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,964

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes15c1,311$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.874,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes8c651.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.927841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes10c417.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.761,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes11c417.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9720231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c339.91$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.168,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes7c318.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7318862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes9c268.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7225519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes8c265.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c241.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes5c222.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.043,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes17c218.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes42c204.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c203.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c199.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.991,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes14c197.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c159.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.021,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No77c136.2$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8252322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes11c130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c114.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes15c113.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.214124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes13c113.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.085,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes18c112.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No65c111.64$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.919679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes18c108.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.988,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c108$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.489,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c107.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c104.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e6…260dbacked Yes24c102.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes13c101.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes13c98.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.874311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c93.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes17c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5545127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…d60fbacked Yes21c85.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes37c81.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes18c79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1429835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed No64c78.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0511935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes14c76.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes14c72.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0313051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes19c70.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.472,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No67c65.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.481,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e1…77debacked Yes26c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124548.9%22 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.637431.1%23 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes38c57.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes27c55.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes26c54.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes23c54.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No77c51.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.657166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb58…478abacked Yes31c51.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.985429.6%16 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1724434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f25…8f1dbacked Yes32c49.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes36c47.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No74c47.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2913274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed Yes29c45.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3313751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0816324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.022,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No75c37.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1826067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c36.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No59c33.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.892,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No78c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2627669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No61c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x463d…abb2backed No61c31.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.24139%16 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes38c31.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No63c29.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0379255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes41c24.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.047452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No62c24.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No76c22.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5127376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No67c22.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2214745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.821,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No69c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7426861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No66c21.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.419361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No60c20.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1922853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c19.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.981,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x737d…d0febacked No58c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.566662.1%41 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No73c17.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7762770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No58c17.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.385671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…c843backed No76c13.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.242190.5%19 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick73cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.