Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b2fd72f80f63d2afaf3322e77fc387f6a274c9b87d67876940e23e5a9bc9d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,583$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.77 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 80c | 3,782$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.1 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 1,998$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.6 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 78c | 1,695$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.81 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 78c | 1,110$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 32c | 896.75$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.96 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 80c | 540$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 387.53$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 350.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…9c34backed Yes | 21c | 341.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 336.87$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 320.29$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 21c | 307.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 267.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 80c | 247.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Yes | 22c | 171.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…5076backed Yes | 20c | 149.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Yes | 20c | 105.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 78c | 74.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 78c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Twente vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Twente win on 2026-08-20?No won
- Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.