MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524b2f7865b7c13cb09504ff7cd63f2f9559d9c06aed744863a9bea6b9c61b92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 2,477$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 375$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 246.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 79.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 69.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…3768backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 40.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…5ae8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 38.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 38.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4d67backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…0366backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 31.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…7945backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 30.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 28.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.