TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,994 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…77c1backed Over63c634.91$400 inWon+$234.922,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under48c614.71$297 inLost-$296.6810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over52c587.78$305 inWon+$282.783528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Under29c553.22$160 inLost-$159.5833515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over69c488.16$339 inWon+$149.6412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under37c445.95$165 inLost-$1651,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c321$169 inWon+$151.888,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Over65c231.33$150 inWon+$81.3330452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under32c144.31$47 inLost-$46.8882741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under37c141.41$52 inLost-$52.44,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under39c141$56 inLost-$55.58,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under37c99$37 inLost-$36.633,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under37c93.25$34 inLost-$34.399,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under37c61.3$23 inLost-$22.681,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under48c50$24 inLost-$244,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9413…d004backed Over67c44.33$30 inWon+$14.633458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under42c43.26$18 inLost-$18.3241836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over59c33.18$20 inWon+$13.66,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over62c31.46$20 inWon+$11.8424654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over44c31$13 inWon+$17.516,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over60c26.88$16 inWon+$10.7511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Under40c26.88$11 inLost-$10.7544737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Over65c20.23$13 inWon+$7.0810846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x967b…46babacked Over66c20$13 inWon+$6.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under56c18.04$10 inLost-$10.184,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.