MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3439f90e1894be3ec39895befce7e20544518bbd2e2abd03997d25e5cfb5e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 14,158$7,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,645.21 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 8,294$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,443.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 2,646$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.17 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 1,940$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.56 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 2c | 1,287$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 1,141$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 77c | 1,102$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 1,099$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 981.79$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.91 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 49c | 748$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.52 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 629.91$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 46c | 545$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Under | 55c | 443.64$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 442.88$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 348.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 317.36$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 211.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 48c | 162.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 144.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 47c | 99.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…86f3backed Over | 47c | 52.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 48.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 51c | 45.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…4aabbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 33c | 32.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 39c | 28.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 44c | 25.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 48c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…07a4backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.