MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41e848419ba0a2a53ba581a9527d6be01e172e91ebeea5b4ca662c18ef0000c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 18c | 1,443$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 1,425$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 838$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 755$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 528.13$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 451.87$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 356.94$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.89 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 326.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 258.6$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 235.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 200.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 12c | 147.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 141.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 13c | 121.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 99.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 94.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 72.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 47.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 41.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 37.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 37.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 34.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 30.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.