MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe72b03fd78797fbeb296806846b758f2fb038eed5cf72a6fa84e99a0fba23ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 6,524$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 3,976$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.77 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 2,592$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 1,987$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.72 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 77c | 1,221$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.26 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 1,104$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 900.75$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 30c | 872$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 30c | 528.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.82 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 33c | 450.5$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 35c | 449$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 59c | 307.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 37c | 269.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.51 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 264.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 23c | 217.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 207.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 61c | 201.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 195.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 57c | 151.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 45.7%128 W · 152 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 79c | 125.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 23c | 122.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 23c | 118.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 24c | 94.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 79c | 76.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 76.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 75c | 75.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 71.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 50c | 65.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 72c | 51.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 30c | 50.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 32c | 49.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 48.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 74c | 46.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 78c | 42.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Under | 56c | 39.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 27c | 39.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 57c | 34.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 62c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.