TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eintracht Spandauof Eintracht Spandau, BIG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed BIG6c20,343$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.252,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed BIG30c15,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9618429.9%55 W · 129 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed BIG36c5,574$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012454%67 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Eintracht Spandau66c4,784$3,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.1620450.5%103 W · 101 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed BIG72c4,198$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.4118971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed BIG63c3,686$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.1111367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed BIG39c3,605$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.7111032.7%36 W · 74 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Eintracht Spandau37c3,356$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.521,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed BIG59c3,337$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.521,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Eintracht Spandau45c3,129$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.521,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed BIG57c2,648$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.361,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed BIG56c2,568$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.551,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Eintracht Spandau44c2,467$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.911,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Eintracht Spandau52c2,420$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.21,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Eintracht Spandau50c2,121$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.391,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Eintracht Spandau36c2,100$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Eintracht Spandau43c1,847$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.1224658.5%144 W · 102 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Eintracht Spandau49c1,687$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.4685742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Eintracht Spandau43c1,611$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.171,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Eintracht Spandau43c1,480$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.112,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Eintracht Spandau76c1,425$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1420036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed BIG65c1,380$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.6260354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Eintracht Spandau38c1,362$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.7561045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Eintracht Spandau70c1,350$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40566845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed BIG52c1,248$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.7839861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BIG39c1,224$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.2246258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed BIG68c1,170$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80036452.7%192 W · 172 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Eintracht Spandau33c1,150$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.4942149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Eintracht Spandau44c1,141$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.146844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed BIG58c1,100$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63826349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked BIG39c1,075$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.0810535.2%37 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Eintracht Spandau42c1,067$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.681,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Eintracht Spandau70c1,054$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.1514552.4%76 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed BIG6c999.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.671,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed BIG56c971.55$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.179853.1%52 W · 46 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Eintracht Spandau42c959.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.1642348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Eintracht Spandau44c916.68$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.6850956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Eintracht Spandau38c908.49$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.2917839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Eintracht Spandau18c900$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.5894237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Eintracht Spandau69c869.75$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.751,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Eintracht Spandau70c857.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1423053.9%124 W · 106 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked Eintracht Spandau70c857.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1415752.2%82 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6a…9fb9backed Eintracht Spandau70c803.25$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.821833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked BIG56c803.17$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Eintracht Spandau43c743.14$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.6970057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Eintracht Spandau61c725.91$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8218061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed BIG62c637$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9417943.6%78 W · 101 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked BIG59c602.53$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6966559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked Eintracht Spandau70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.439658.3%56 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6803…5d6dbacked Eintracht Spandau45c564.44$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.446753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Eintracht Spandau36c561$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.042,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked BIG36c560.38$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.513429.1%39 W · 95 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed BIG31c559.12$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0697854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed BIG39c514.77$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3253829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Eintracht Spandau70c499.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed BIG62c499.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9966059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Eintracht Spandau56c484$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.991,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BIG47c465.45$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.642,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf4…3e36backed BIG44c457.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-54%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Eintracht Spandau78c448.72$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.727857.7%45 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BIG33c411.28$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.952,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed BIG63c407.37$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6454529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Eintracht Spandau38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2481,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Eintracht Spandau62c400$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15352543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked Eintracht Spandau70c395.2$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5614750.3%74 W · 73 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed BIG9c392.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3182836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Eintracht Spandau68c375$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.481,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Eintracht Spandau57c369.78$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.121,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Eintracht Spandau38c364.54$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0123946%110 W · 129 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Eintracht Spandau41c362.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.891,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked BIG54c359.48$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8249841.6%207 W · 291 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Eintracht Spandau59c343$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7714941.6%62 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56e…1c76backed BIG65c337.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.17566.7%50 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52dd…005dbacked BIG37c324.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012251.6%63 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BIG33c321.88$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.832,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf338…4514backed BIG53c320.54$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.56741.8%28 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked BIG63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a0…6d52backed BIG63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe67c…727abacked BIG61c317.06$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.61258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Eintracht Spandau33c303.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1553545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked BIG55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1659943.4%43 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Eintracht Spandau59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12321940.6%89 W · 130 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed BIG71c299.34$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9166458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483b…f0a3backed BIG37c292.68$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2911563.5%73 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bc…46f8backed BIG35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027340.7%111 W · 162 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e0…413fbacked BIG70c285.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007163.4%45 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed BIG37c284.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.961,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed BIG56c283.96$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4220547.8%98 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef9…3d08backed Eintracht Spandau53c282.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0310246.1%47 W · 55 L-15.5wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-25.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7039…4a7dbacked BIG63c281.98$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.651163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Eintracht Spandau42c278.35$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.231,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed BIG51c277.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2462649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad2…c9e4backed BIG37c270.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027248.9%133 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Eintracht Spandau57c269.22$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.871,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked BIG78c267.6$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.6836460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a6…aecebacked BIG37c264.41$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Eintracht Spandau38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1656949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked Eintracht Spandau72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.413456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Eintracht Spandau45c244$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.296054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BIG45c238.02$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.493,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.