TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BIGof Eintracht Spandau, BIG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,497 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Eintracht Spandau1c9,744$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.542,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed BIG59c7,446$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,041.6911367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed BIG38c6,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,719.995740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed Eintracht Spandau62c4,010$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.194151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked BIG78c3,841$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.6128642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Eintracht Spandau1c2,807$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.076651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed Eintracht Spandau60c2,762$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.4839861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Eintracht Spandau42c2,500$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.842,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BIG43c2,307$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.9546258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Eintracht Spandau52c2,079$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.4542149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed BIG60c2,008$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.9360354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Eintracht Spandau48c1,880$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.9126635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BIG49c1,880$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.062,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BIG45c1,828$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.321,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Eintracht Spandau53c1,712$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90017852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked BIG44c1,594$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.231,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Eintracht Spandau40c1,525$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.531,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Eintracht Spandau49c1,500$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.092,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Eintracht Spandau41c1,463$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60026349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Eintracht Spandau9c1,300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Eintracht Spandau56c1,276$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.981,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Eintracht Spandau54c1,239$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67517839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed BIG38c1,194$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.171,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed BIG22c1,100$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85494237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed BIG59c1,058$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.361,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked BIG46c980.15$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.9566559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked Eintracht Spandau2c930.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61422.4%1 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BIG48c852.3$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.622,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed BIG59c844.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.560855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Eintracht Spandau48c833.7$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40042348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Eintracht Spandau63c802.52$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50818061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Eintracht Spandau42c777.77$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6640726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Eintracht Spandau42c729.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.235346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed BIG66c718.07$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.613553.3%72 W · 63 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a4c…55babacked Eintracht Spandau43c682.35$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5410859.3%64 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed BIG58c674.32$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9913067.7%88 W · 42 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc13…8c5dbacked Eintracht Spandau51c653.25$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.294346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed Eintracht Spandau62c647.88$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40036452.7%192 W · 172 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked Eintracht Spandau50c603.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Eintracht Spandau40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85a…960ebacked BIG59c542.37$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.375343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed BIG57c522.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1977746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…f266backed Eintracht Spandau39c509.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005740.4%23 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Eintracht Spandau75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37513137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Eintracht Spandau43c465.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcad2…c9e4backed Eintracht Spandau46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027248.9%133 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Eintracht Spandau43c405.59$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1998956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed Eintracht Spandau26c400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6721839.4%86 W · 132 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Eintracht Spandau51c393.23$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4134658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Eintracht Spandau50c388.62$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3135058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BIG42c359.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.173,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Eintracht Spandau32c359.92$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.312,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed BIG63c347.13$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1210554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…1a8dbacked Eintracht Spandau59c339.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022751.5%117 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2730…0e0abacked BIG61c329.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.921361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Eintracht Spandau48c310$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.81,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed Eintracht Spandau52c305$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4531150.2%156 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…f400backed Eintracht Spandau31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7211739.3%46 W · 71 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56e…1c76backed BIG51c292.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.597566.7%50 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf194…b52dbacked Eintracht Spandau16c274.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked BIG47c264.02$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0985742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed BIG60c257.27$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4343539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed BIG50c249.21$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1213444%59 W · 75 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Eintracht Spandau42c240.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bc…46f8backed BIG42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.127340.7%111 W · 162 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked BIG52c229$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.881,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked BIG43c226.05$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.531,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Eintracht Spandau41c223$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4396054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed Eintracht Spandau46c215.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Eintracht Spandau42c213.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.429637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BIG31c203$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.212,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53da…7603backed BIG67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6615161.6%93 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed BIG57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8662649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Eintracht Spandau41c199.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf21…d34abacked BIG58c199.96$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9814461.8%89 W · 55 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed Eintracht Spandau41c190$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.996452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d40…5739backed Eintracht Spandau53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009848%47 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed BIG59c184.25$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.091,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Eintracht Spandau47c174.88$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2941469.3%287 W · 127 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6fa…ac8fbacked BIG40c169.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7563448.1%305 W · 329 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe67c…727abacked Eintracht Spandau59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed Eintracht Spandau48c160.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7744850.7%227 W · 221 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Eintracht Spandau53c152.71$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.582044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8458…52bfbacked Eintracht Spandau50c151.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756744.8%30 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…caf8backed BIG53c145.2$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2417661.9%109 W · 67 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BIG49c141.25$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.111,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Eintracht Spandau41c138$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5858850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed BIG50c131.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4553545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Eintracht Spandau72c130.95$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.578043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Eintracht Spandau63c130.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.71,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Eintracht Spandau45c126.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.771,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Eintracht Spandau40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016946.7%79 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed BIG42c120.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0852543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9d…6c84backed Eintracht Spandau53c120.4$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3134438.7%133 W · 211 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Eintracht Spandau41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Eintracht Spandau43c116.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9436151.8%187 W · 174 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ef9…3d08backed Eintracht Spandau66c113.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510246.1%47 W · 55 L-15.5wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-25.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed BIG30c111.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2521953%116 W · 103 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Eintracht Spandau50c106.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5325551.4%131 W · 124 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Eintracht Spandau56c104$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.081,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.