TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Omega vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-Zero Tenacityof Omega, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,105 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b6d…2f1abacked Omega0c7,953$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf6a…925fbacked Omega39c2,247$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.95742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked ex-Zero Tenacity69c2,215$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.883,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Omega36c1,641$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.685,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity70c1,503$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.522,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-Zero Tenacity65c1,378$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.626,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…5738backed Omega26c1,317$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.421844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ex-Zero Tenacity60c1,007$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.971,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Omega22c874.92$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.872,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity67c844.49$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8920238.6%78 W · 124 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf40…7a39backed Omega48c675.58$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed ex-Zero Tenacity80c637.84$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.574959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-Zero Tenacity62c579.03$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.524,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Omega43c552.8$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.77856.4%44 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-Zero Tenacity54c524.35$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7684454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed Omega30c506.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-Zero Tenacity63c474.69$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.67,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Omega22c465.31$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.917255.6%40 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed ex-Zero Tenacity75c412.74$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5869863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Omega42c406$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5238037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Omega40c349$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.646447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity59c321.4$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.035,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Omega44c304$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.38733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed Omega13c301.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.247034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Omega46c268$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.955625%14 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Omega45c267$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0239239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Omega46c266.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.655,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Omega7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74e3…59cdbacked Omega53c240.04$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.482458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…d41abacked Omega41c240$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Omega42c225.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7333448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked ex-Zero Tenacity51c196.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8245450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed ex-Zero Tenacity53c187.07$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9232844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-Zero Tenacity58c185.81$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.695,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed ex-Zero Tenacity58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2933044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Omega22c172.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9332536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Omega26c170.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.012,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf1b5…ac7ebacked Omega22c166.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Omega14c163.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4980744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed ex-Zero Tenacity74c162.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5326075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Omega29c159.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1591648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed ex-Zero Tenacity62c158.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.691,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity60c150$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.523858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9eb…c250backed ex-Zero Tenacity68c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity62c149.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6926257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked ex-Zero Tenacity67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.253265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb668…5e98backed Omega11c147.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa960…9407backed ex-Zero Tenacity57c130$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.99554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity70c128$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Omega44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.535744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-Zero Tenacity58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity56c113$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7254348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Omega11c109.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0711550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed ex-Zero Tenacity54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2552951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Omega20c104$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.869732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked ex-Zero Tenacity79c102$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2121536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Omega41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4114454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed ex-Zero Tenacity55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4536845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Omega41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4140247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed Omega26c97.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530831.2%96 W · 212 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67d…573dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity70c91.16$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed ex-Zero Tenacity70c88.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9423751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea49…434fbacked Omega35c80.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.315057.3%86 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Omega23c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.569940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Omega41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.81,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Omega26c78.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Omega23c77.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7249242.1%207 W · 285 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Omega22c74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.281,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Omega23c74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1431440.1%126 W · 188 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Omega20c73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2949745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Omega54c72.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.892147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Omega43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ex-Zero Tenacity67c68.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.052,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc990…80bbbacked ex-Zero Tenacity77c64.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.583053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Omega46c60.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5787244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Omega41c60.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.691,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Omega39c57.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed ex-Zero Tenacity66c57.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.233847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Omega45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed ex-Zero Tenacity59c54.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2228660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9889…b214backed ex-Zero Tenacity66c53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Omega42c52.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2612452.4%65 W · 59 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Omega41c52.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5845639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1519055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed ex-Zero Tenacity57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516946.7%79 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Omega55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.538753.2%206 W · 181 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Omega26c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6154346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Omega42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1611450%57 W · 57 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Omega40c47.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed Omega43c47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2128852.1%150 W · 138 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity57c43.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.67647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Omega44c42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.537536%27 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed ex-Zero Tenacity56c41.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2510956.9%62 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Omega43c40.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4328549.5%141 W · 144 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed ex-Zero Tenacity55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Omega44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.611844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3a…5c97backed ex-Zero Tenacity55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Omega53c38.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5236649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Omega28c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3639248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Omega35c36.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.771,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.