World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535d15aa80957752f467ccbc2d0b94db961d0046b95d919a9aaf45f59c1eccd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 836.73$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 490.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 379.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 4c | 371.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 334.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 4c | 304.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 228.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 225.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 77c | 197.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 21c | 184.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 184$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 19c | 167.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 158.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…2f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 151.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 149.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 135.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 22c | 133.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 124.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 123.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 117.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 16c | 114.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 98.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 89.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 83.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 81.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 298 | 58.7%175 W · 123 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 53.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 52.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 78c | 50.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 72c | 47.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 78c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.