World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0f2336eea3471d1d575a5b1bd4989f4813eb24013b9abdbbfed6d9bfa9abb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 24c | 1,156$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,084$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 492.33$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 476.81$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 45c | 444.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 442.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 44c | 385.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 361.18$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 269.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 16c | 239.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 21c | 232.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 38c | 219.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 216.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 298 | 58.7%175 W · 123 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 168.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 69c | 159.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 158.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 152.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 151.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 139.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 137.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 135.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 129$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 111.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 110.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 102.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 15c | 95.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 40c | 93.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 15c | 88.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 86.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 77.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 77.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…7a08backed No | 79c | 72.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 69.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 63.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 198 | 69.2%137 W · 61 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 61.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 21c | 56.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 61c | 55.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 53.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 54c | 51.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 51.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 36c | 50.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 35c | 50.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 59c | 37.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 36.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 40c | 35.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 34.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 33.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 41c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 41c | 30.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 41c | 29.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…5d9ebacked No | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.