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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes54c884.61$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.32441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No44c702.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2930944%136 W · 173 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No32c588.02$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.088359%49 W · 34 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c360.86$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1525652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c347.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.989140.7%37 W · 54 L+14.6wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No41c344.49$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6212258.2%71 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes59c336.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.871973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No15c263.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7816357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No45c235.46$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.966046.7%28 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes76c213.18$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.031030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-60.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes59c177.83$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.834951%25 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes59c174.51$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No47c149.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6115754.1%85 W · 72 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes48c143.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2110868.5%74 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No47c132.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.911650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes50c130.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.247137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c126.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.33857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No38c125$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x637d…7df1backed Yes56c118.43$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5529858.7%175 W · 123 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes51c114$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.35851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c109$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8941152.3%215 W · 196 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes54c107.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.772334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c102.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8439813.8%55 W · 343 L-72.7wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7fad…242fbacked No49c102.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c101.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6836755.3%203 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417647.4%36 W · 40 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+2.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3718345.4%83 W · 100 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.442050%10 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442548%12 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes58c94.92$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.33351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c93.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3155351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.971662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No25c89.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8926136.8%96 W · 165 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No45c88.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.512653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No46c83.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1317954.2%97 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c82.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.387146.5%33 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes50c81.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1413235.6%47 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes59c81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.217935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes39c79.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.593630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c78.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1643649.5%216 W · 220 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No43c77.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5136154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No22c76.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1817952%93 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No37c75.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.717654.5%96 W · 80 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes50c75.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.666642.4%28 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No53c74.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.693852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9912030%36 W · 84 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes52c69.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.098638.4%33 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes78c66.26$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.682060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No49c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No44c61.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.088556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No32c60.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4618053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes55c59.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.758151.9%42 W · 39 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No41c59.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.567051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No67c59.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.522240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked No66c54.34$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.093426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes45c52.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes36c52.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.421030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+101.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No64c52.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.426245.2%28 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228248.8%40 W · 42 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes53c47.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No35c46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2237458%217 W · 157 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d88…6adebacked Yes61c44.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes50c43.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.675736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87e…acd3backed No40c42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes54c41.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.044339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No44c41.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1616455.5%91 W · 73 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed No37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c40.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1446329.4%136 W · 327 L-69.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No47c38.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.044766%31 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No41c38.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7214551%74 W · 71 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes54c37.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.221540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402f…6d99backed Yes55c36.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes57c36.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick63cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No42c35.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9517459.8%104 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No47c34.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3815746.5%73 W · 84 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbc…d2e1backed No42c32.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No46c32.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925742.1%24 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes60c32.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c30.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5222955.5%127 W · 102 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.87346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1911135.1%39 W · 72 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes59c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6219869.2%137 W · 61 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed No64c26.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a5…1958backed Yes62c25.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes47c25.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.447277.8%56 W · 16 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+28.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.713140.5%53 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No47c24.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.623050%15 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes54c23.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8213548.9%66 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1585…5839backed Yes64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No53c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.191060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes49c22.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes62c21.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.993145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.