NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5387fd1f78295df497f489a1892de6a92b0784a0b9b7ff576667da80246b9490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Under | 43c | 2,246$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 1,316$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 39c | 1,140$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.59 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 44c | 1,017$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.11 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…307dbacked Over | 56c | 869.29$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.8 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Over | 53c | 550.08$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.54 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 494.74$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 442.45$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 431.35$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.93 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 430.29$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.66 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 52c | 430$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 57c | 403.07$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.51 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 57c | 390.46$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Over | 55c | 353.32$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.33 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 332.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…5298backed Over | 54c | 318$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 54c | 241.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 238.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 217.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 20c | 190.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 165.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 44c | 154.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Over | 52c | 111.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 106.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed Over | 52c | 101.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 97.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Under | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 81.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Over | 56c | 78.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 44c | 73.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 70.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 56c | 69.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 68.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 24c | 53.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 50.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Under | 44c | 46.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…d36fbacked Over | 52c | 46.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 42c | 41.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 50c | 41.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 41.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Over | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 79c | 36.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 35.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 56c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 52c | 32.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…3ef8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…2573backed Over | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 42c | 24.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…6e63backed Over | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 72c | 19.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Derik Queen: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.