NBA · resolved market
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd11b9cc22c0af2c456a96b5df6d73fc74e6fbc7b10a3c05c36a5f23c7172155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 39c | 270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 61c | 263.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed Yes | 35c | 158.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…dd9abacked Yes | 42c | 137.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…f237backed Yes | 45c | 96.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 48c | 57.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…0783backed Yes | 35c | 44.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked No | 55c | 39.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Derik Queen: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.