TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$311,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0979…8d9bbacked Trail Blazers49c132,314$64,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,603.120352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans51c69,919$35,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,658.4543148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pelicans52c35,141$18,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,266.211,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Trail Blazers50c34,992$17,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4968452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pelicans50c33,548$16,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,768.2572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers43c14,317$6,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229.892,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pelicans57c13,680$7,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,844.681,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Trail Blazers50c11,901$5,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,950.631,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e18…bddfbacked Pelicans50c9,796$4,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,897.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans50c9,286$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.911,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Pelicans54c9,023$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.657848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Trail Blazers52c8,500$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.081,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Trail Blazers49c8,400$4,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.973941%16 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Pelicans51c7,474$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,811.557451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Trail Blazers49c6,490$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.1127747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans51c5,563$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8371,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b83…59f7backed Pelicans50c4,850$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Trail Blazers48c4,156$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.9920843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Pelicans50c4,097$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.6417349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Pelicans50c3,878$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.0416640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers49c3,836$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers49c3,773$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Pelicans50c3,652$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82616249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Pelicans50c3,600$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80070246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Trail Blazers50c3,325$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.558654.7%47 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pelicans51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Pelicans51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5306939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans52c2,421$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.4764651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Pelicans51c2,329$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.0146145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Trail Blazers48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Pelicans50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Pelicans52c1,997$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.3662948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca30…7060backed Pelicans50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Pelicans51c1,903$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.610847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked Pelicans57c1,706$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.271526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pelicans51c1,604$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.671,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Pelicans50c1,601$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.2531643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.772,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Trail Blazers50c1,112$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.051,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f24…9141backed Trail Blazers42c1,102$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers50c1,086$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…de1bbacked Trail Blazers45c1,078$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Pelicans50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Trail Blazers49c1,000$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51535049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Trail Blazers50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48513857.2%79 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Trail Blazers51c951.57$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.2711651.7%60 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Pelicans50c860$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43023850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50d…81debacked Trail Blazers50c828.38$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.192259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans45c793.45$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.665,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Pelicans51c784$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8421443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Trail Blazers50c770.69$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.381349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Trail Blazers50c666.17$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.091,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Trail Blazers51c576.54$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.524044.6%107 W · 133 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Pelicans51c530.98$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.847651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…4d90backed Trail Blazers51c504.71$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers43c495.69$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Pelicans51c494.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3621950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Trail Blazers39c494.05$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3728046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Pelicans50c486.08$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8819745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Trail Blazers51c461.39$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers56c437.02$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.922,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Trail Blazers50c415.32$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f51…7b9ebacked Trail Blazers44c414.69$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8510835.2%38 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Pelicans49c408.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0152951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Trail Blazers48c403.66$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.976250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Pelicans42c399.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9944345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Pelicans78c380.02$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.025261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans54c379.22$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.783,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Pelicans51c369.87$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18721653.7%116 W · 100 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers46c362.71$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.772,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…1422backed Pelicans71c361.93$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.82867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Trail Blazers47c350$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.51,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans66c342.9$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.383,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2167…9062backed Trail Blazers50c333.68$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb00f…e0e9backed Pelicans51c323.53$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Pelicans51c313.49$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8834953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…a08abacked Trail Blazers31c301.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.031154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Trail Blazers50c295.29$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14871654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers51c291.18$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6873649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d6…b98cbacked Trail Blazers50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d1…0501backed Trail Blazers50c277.36$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers50c261.45$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.732,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Trail Blazers50c242.67$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3327450%137 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Trail Blazers49c240.44$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.137355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Trail Blazers48c230$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Trail Blazers50c228.23$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1276552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Trail Blazers50c225.58$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9351647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7521…c083backed Trail Blazers48c224.04$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.54734%16 W · 31 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Trail Blazers53c220.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6938453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans53c220.03$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6268542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans49c209.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.463,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Trail Blazers47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Pelicans49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Trail Blazers54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9345251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Pelicans52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046950.7%35 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecf9…9372backed Trail Blazers55c199.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.73441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Trail Blazers49c198.06$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1216042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Trail Blazers49c197.08$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1310856.5%61 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pelicans50c196.1$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.241,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.