NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542dd9df6befc15fa76d4431ea8fc9c96ce27a935e88d01d4460afe461f05e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Under | 49c | 21,000$10,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,710 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Over | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 49c | 10,271$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,271.31 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,091.82 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 50c | 5,400$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 47c | 4,680$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.39 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…3fc7backed Over | 53c | 3,843$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.99 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…ac86backed Over | 51c | 2,637$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Under | 48c | 2,366$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.06 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096f…8c80backed Over | 48c | 1,292$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 53c | 1,106$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 1,006$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.66 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…6c1cbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 48c | 841.76$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.72 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 678.77$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Under | 49c | 561.22$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.22 | 255 | 54.1%138 W · 117 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Over | 53c | 509.43$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 417$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…08d3backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 354.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 53c | 332.08$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6d88backed Under | 49c | 283.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Over | 55c | 120.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 107.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 46c | 30.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 45c | 27.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. NetsHeat won
- Heat vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.