NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3073428db03b6709581782bb8075a2f515b229a48eec064458e067c787668e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 53c | 56,421$30,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,393.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…1795backed Nets | 47c | 29,551$13,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,888.97 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Nets | 44c | 11,446$5,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,036.04 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…26fbbacked Nets | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.98 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Nets | 47c | 6,217$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…ac86backed Heat | 48c | 4,100$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Nets | 47c | 3,924$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.08 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Heat | 53c | 3,865$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.4 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Nets | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Heat | 53c | 3,062$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.26 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 50c | 2,731$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.05 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat | 53c | 2,724$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.13 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 46c | 2,608$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Nets | 47c | 2,406$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat | 51c | 1,849$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.89 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Nets | 49c | 1,284$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.03 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets | 53c | 1,243$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.57 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Heat | 47c | 1,213$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 54c | 1,002$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Nets | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nets | 71c | 700$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 56c | 585$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 46c | 569$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 50c | 468.97$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Nets | 50c | 430$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 55c | 235.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Nets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Nets | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nets | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Nets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 54c | 195.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…ff77backed Nets | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Heat | 50c | 177.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Nets | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 49c | 152.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nets | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Nets | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Heat | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Nets | 47c | 115.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Heat | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Nets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Nets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 52c | 95.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…4024backed Nets | 53c | 92.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nets | 45c | 80.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Heat | 48c | 67.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Nets | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Heat | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Heat | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Heat | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nets | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Heat | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nets | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Nets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…05ecbacked Nets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Nets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…d3eabacked Heat | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Nets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…d04ebacked Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Nets | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Heat | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc422…71d8backed Heat | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…23dcbacked Nets | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Nets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Nets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d2…5df4backed Nets | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1771…a759backed Heat | 54c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. NetsHeat won
- Heat vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.