NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd166885b348b7ce0f6b57f98c59125fd5fcdb81cf192ad705243635a3cf9e49a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nets | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 45c | 813$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 55c | 803.76$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Nets | 44c | 769.99$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.1 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Heat | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…d008backed Nets | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 53c | 209.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Nets | 48c | 204.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Heat | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Heat | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Nets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 45c | 86.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Heat | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nets | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Heat | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 45c | 41.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba82…600bbacked Heat | 55c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. NetsHeat won
- Heat vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.