NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620f8a44a385da65a60d3556018df87d711a252a82110578ac0c24d9aabf240f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 23,253$12,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,170.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 45c | 17,224$7,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,750.61 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 50c | 8,809$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.73 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 4,446$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 51c | 2,735$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.27 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 52c | 2,635$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,566$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 54c | 1,128$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.88 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Under | 53c | 1,057$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,051$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.45 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 55c | 896$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 48c | 837$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.98 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Under | 52c | 742.02$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.02 | 255 | 54.1%138 W · 117 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Under | 54c | 381.72$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 53c | 314.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 286$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.86 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 146.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 142.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Over | 51c | 43.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…d04ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…82fdbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…71e1backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba82…600bbacked Under | 53c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. NetsHeat won
- Heat vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.