NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ca95f43e4ac84ce120b431ea0fa212fb1dfe09285b1069e9004b1603c2131d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 8,519$3,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,666.67 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 55c | 7,317$4,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.26 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,016$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 52c | 1,861$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.5 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,241$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 983.08$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 553.8$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6d88backed Under | 51c | 261.49$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 50c | 238$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 201$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Under | 50c | 188.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 162.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 94.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 55c | 84.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 56.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Under | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. NetsHeat won
- Heat vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.