Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5461e88c5f3859c8eec616716cdd81b5b8da3b9bdeb6f7022f686966e674bea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 64c | 6,744$4,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,316.59 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Over | 36c | 4,201$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677.96 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 65c | 1,554$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.62 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 63c | 1,532$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.18 | 890 | 50.6%450 W · 440 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed Over | 36c | 708.33$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.33 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…fafcbacked Over | 36c | 678$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.92 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…3ca0backed Over | 36c | 666.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 35c | 584.2$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.73 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Over | 36c | 519.44$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.44 | 333 | 32.7%109 W · 224 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Over | 36c | 517$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.88 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 37c | 345.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Over | 36c | 312$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.77 | 421 | 43.9%185 W · 236 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 35c | 237.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 545 | 29.7%162 W · 383 L | -34.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Over | 36c | 237.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 35c | 202.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 331 | 39.9%132 W · 199 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 59c | 141.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Over | 44c | 140.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Over | 39c | 128.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 65c | 122$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 36c | 102.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 40c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Over | 34c | 48.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Over | 35c | 40.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6748…3c4cbacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 66c | 24.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 356 | 39.3%140 W · 216 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5)Dignitas won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonCloud9 won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 1 WinnerDignitas won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 WinnerCloud9 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.