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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,019 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbb7…a11abacked No65c1,102$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.411,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No5c647$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6517436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes36c470.25$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.998,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes43c458.54$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5312732.3%41 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c424.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.741,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c417.11$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.984,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes33c362.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2988124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2edc…a207backed Yes51c313.09$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.939929.3%29 W · 70 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c306.33$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.354,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No60c249.12$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.411,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes35c230.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4814240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No61c163.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.242,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes38c159.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019139.8%76 W · 115 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c140.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes45c133$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8563733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c129.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8510,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8b…9082backed Yes78c128.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4127…a8cebacked No79c127.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.234254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No66c113.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.491,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No67c111.17$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2645059.1%266 W · 184 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3816347.9%78 W · 85 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b9…1486backed No64c89.91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c83.69$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1912,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No72c83.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.497957%45 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c81.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.65,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No64c77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3414262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c68.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.192,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes38c67.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1220851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b0…ed0fbacked Yes36c67.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No65c66.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.754,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No32c61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2318947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c60.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes34c60.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2324349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes37c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4655238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes36c55.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,41765.2%924 W · 493 L+59.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c55.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8212,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No59c54.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4716958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No54c54.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2492145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes36c53.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4416832.1%54 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No21c51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.061,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,18457.4%680 W · 504 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818468.5%126 W · 58 L+24.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+30.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes36c48.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.782,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes36c48.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.589938.4%38 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No62c48.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes35c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.837550.7%190 W · 185 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcd…5df4backed No42c47.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes38c44.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,15425%289 W · 865 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes40c43.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7051…c8acbacked No65c41.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f0…1731backed No64c41.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.174269%29 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.355,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.458850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.237027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…1ca0backed No41c39.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.524667.4%31 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes41c37.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.322045.9%101 W · 119 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0369…6853backed Yes34c36.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No57c34.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.489661.5%59 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157841%32 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ccf…f1e1backed No60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.23537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f74…a12fbacked Yes39c31.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.451428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes39c31.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.441,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2555336%199 W · 354 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes37c30.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1424756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes35c30.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4960032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c5…6b6cbacked Yes37c29.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes39c29.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4915246.1%70 W · 82 L-19.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No64c28.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c27.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.071,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No65c25.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.783,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaf3…2286backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No66c23.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2833867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes46c22.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a22…f06ebacked Yes77c20.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…ef2fbacked No65c20.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.013363.6%21 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.75,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c19.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.346,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63d…8ee8backed No66c18.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.356100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No66c15.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.222,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.