Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa44ba5a7366ee95a7a57b0efdb3d9a1cce4df29f828d2072e6fc501b0d6b448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 41c | 524.28$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.51 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 497.02$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.66 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 48c | 420.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.66 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 417.09$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 285.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 60c | 279.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 261.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 59c | 255.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 45c | 217.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 46c | 208.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…5cb9backed No | 49c | 204.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 54c | 185.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 175.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked No | 54c | 159.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 153.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 147.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…5df4backed No | 51c | 145.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 56c | 138.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 135.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 133.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 133$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 45c | 123.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 30c | 122.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 41c | 120.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 45c | 108.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 36c | 97.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 93.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 82.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 46c | 77.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 23c | 77.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 48c | 72.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 58c | 72.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 53c | 68.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 62c | 67.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 34c | 67.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 60.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 56.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 45c | 54.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 52.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…1546backed No | 42c | 48.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 53c | 44.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 44c | 36.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 34.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 49c | 34.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 33.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 33.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 60c | 32.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 30.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 53c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 41c | 28.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…735cbacked Yes | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 62c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 52c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 61c | 16.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 63c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 424 | 47.9%203 W · 221 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.