Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f8d9fe121e23ce3c8597a4fbc52c6eb7153a7342e5172ca50e0a1fa9c51e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 949.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 659.31$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 620.19$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 541.94$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 464.79$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 5c | 445.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 442.77$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 414.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 380.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 299.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 236.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 22c | 230.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 11c | 189.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 187.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 184.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 182.2$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 32c | 181.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 141.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 139$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 134.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 128.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 123.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 110.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 108.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 11c | 101.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 92.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 83.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…ad88backed Yes | 24c | 81.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 78.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 70.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 64.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 61.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 30c | 61.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 61.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 55.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 54.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 51.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 50.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 48.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 30c | 41.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 34c | 41.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 15.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.